What Is
Happening To Iraqi Oil?
By Issam Al-Chalabi
The views
contained in this paper were expressed to the participants in the 26th
International Oil & Money Conference held in
It is common
knowledge that
In order to
understand the current situation of the Iraqi oil industry and its future
outlook, we need to go back to the past. Iraqi oil was discovered in 1927
when the first oil well was drilled in
Thanks to the
first and second oil price increases of 1973 and 1979, Iraq utilized a good
amount of its revenue in building its oil industry, both upstream and
downstream, with proven oil reserves rising considerably due to some major
discoveries of super-giant fields like Majnoon, Nahr 'Umar, Halfaiya,
West Qurna, East Baghdad and others. Iraqi oil
production peaked in 1979, with exports reaching around 3.5mn b/d and
production capacity of around 3.8mn b/d. This continued until September
1980 when the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war broke out.
Iraq-Iran War
The
eight-year-long war inflicted severe damage to almost all export, production,
refining, gas-processing and distribution facilities and networks. Exports
were limited to those through the first Iraq-Turkey pipeline – around 600,000
b/d, with production falling down to 800,000 b/d.
Despite the heavy
toll of the war and concentration of all efforts on repairing damaged
installation,
As the years went
by and especially after the end of the war in August 1988, production and
export figures started to climb again. By July 1990, actual production was
around 3.2mn b/d, with total capacity climbing to almost 3.8mn b/d; but still
the actual production and export remained below that of 1979.
Invasion Of
When
The oil industry
had hardly recovered from the Iraq-Iran war when the second Gulf War led by the
Once the UN
oil-for-food program was initiated in December 1996, oil production started to
climb, as did exports, although they were limited by a ceiling for over 18
months. Once that ceiling was lifted in 1999,
(Mn B/D)
Year |
Production |
Exports |
2000 |
2.63 |
2.08 |
2001 |
2.61 |
2.02 |
2002 |
2.25 |
1.63 |
During certain
short periods, the production figures were 2.8-3.0mn b/d and exports were up to
2-5mn b/d.
Those figures
were admittedly detrimental to the oil industry and particularly to the state
of the reservoirs, since
Deteriorating
Oil Industry
The UN, from 1998
onwards, issued many reports warning of the deteriorating situation in
In its report of
June 1998 the UN said that the Iraqi oil industry was in a lamentable
state. It said that “thanks to over-production policies, 20% of wells
have been irreparably damaged”. And in its July 1999 report it said: “Productivity
of existing oil wells has been seriously reduced, in some cases
irreparably. Decline of 2% has resulted in new fields and up to 15% in old
fields, as in
The
The oil
facilities this time escaped direct bombing and they were not considered direct
targets. Only about seven oil wells in Rumaila were
damaged and were set on fire for unknown reasons, and the pipeline complex near
Baiji refineries at al-Fatha
and Haditha crude oil tank farm were bombed.
Some have said
that the aim of the multinational forces was to protect Iraqi oil. In my
opinion, that is untrue.
What happened was
that the Ministry of Oil headquarters in
In June 2003,
Almost 30 months
after the occupation of
The rehabilitation program (RIO I, RIO II) initiated
by the
The Ministry of Oil, for its part, has had limited success in rehabilitation
and maintenance due to security reasons, lack of funds, foreign EPC companies
leaving the country, bureaucracy and other reasons.
There has been only a limited program to assess the
status of reservoirs. One major study, expected to be completed in early
2006, relates to
There has been very limited drilling and workover activities for the oil wells.
Most water-injection and wet crude facilities await rehabilitation.
Sabotage of pipelines continues, particularly in the center and north, despite
all military efforts and the hundreds of millions of dollars spent to protect
them.
Refineries are operating at 60-70% of their capacities due to lack of major
maintenance and disruption of supplies through pipeline sabotage.
Shortage of fuel has resulted in a black market controlled by mafia and
gangsters causing prices to increase, in some cases to 50 times the official
prices. Rationing and alternative car movement schedules continue, but
Iraqis still have to wait for hours to get their rations.
Since June 2003,
Smuggling, particularly through the narrow Shatt al-Arab and Khor al-Zubair continue, despite the presence of multinational and
Iraqi forces. It is said that many groups, political and otherwise, are
benefiting from this lucrative trade.
The Ministry of Oil has awarded a few EP projects within Daura
and
The Ministry of Oil has undergone continuous changes in structure and
personnel, resulting in disruption and discontinuity.
As for production
and exports, senior
(Mn B/D)
Year |
Production |
Exports |
2003 |
1.55 |
1.00 |
2004 |
2.00 |
1.55 |
2005 |
1.80 |
1.40 |
Hence a decline
has been the pattern.
Upstream
Development Plans
For over 25
years, there were plans on the table to develop crude oil production capacity
to 5.5-6.0mn b/d. The plans have been interrupted by three wars, 13 years of
sanctions, and continuous chaos, lawlessness and anarchy since March 2003.
In 1979,
There was a
revival of the same plans in March 1990, with the aim of carrying them out with
the participation of IOCs and NOCs
under a buyback model. Again, there was a good response, but the plan was
frozen when
In May 1991, a
few months, after the second Gulf War,
Iraq continued
discussions throughout the 1990s with many other companies of different
nationalities which resulted in a number of contracts, as with Lukoil of Russia in 1997 (MEES, 31 March 1997, 16
April 1997) for the second phase of West Qurna and
al-Waha-CNPC of China in
1997 (MEES, 9 June 1997) for al-Ahdab and over
10 other contracts and agreements, including ONGC of India, Pertamina,
Sonatrach and Petrovietnam;
but none of these contracts and agreements has been implemented. The Saddam
regime terminated the contract with Lukoil in
December 2002 (MEES, 16 December 2002). All agreements are now on hold
and it is expected that they will be renegotiated at a later stage by the new
regime in
Various
statements were made after the 2003 war on upstream development plans, but all
suggestions and expectations seem to be moving in a dark tunnel.
For the plan to
upgrade production to its pre-1990 level of around 3.5mn b/d,
there has been very limited progress. Despite the fact that the Ministry
of Oil issued tender documents on an E&P basis to develop a number of small
fields (such as Khormala, Himrin,
Subba and Luhais) only Khormala has entered into an execution stage with
No IOC Role
Soon
As for any role
for IOCs and NOCs, none
should be expected in the short or even medium term. It is the consensus of all
concerned parties that having security and stability is by far the most serious
concern and that seems to be a function of the political process and the
presence as well as the role of the occupation forces. Simultaneously it
is essential that dealings be handled through a permanent institution and not
interim or transitional governments and parliaments, changing every few months.
If the proposed draft constitution, to be put to a referendum on 15 October, is
endorsed, then there will be new elections far a new parliament on 15 December.
But if the draft constitution is rejected, then there will be elections for yet
another interim parliament.
So in order to
attract foreign companies in long-term deals there will be a need for:
A
new permanent government to be set up next February after the elections in
December. This could
again be another interim government if the constitution is rejected and in that
case there will be a new referendum and elections around mid-2006.
A
new Hydrocarbon Law that will introduce the possibility of foreign investment
and participation of IOCs and NOCs.
Such a step might take quite some time, as in the case of
All
necessary fiscal and legal laws to guarantee foreign involvement.
Restructuring
of the Ministry of Oil and the re-establishment of Iraq National Oil Co (INOC).
A clear oil
policy that outlines the basic principles and modes to be followed for
development, production-sharing, buyback, development and production, service
contracts etc or possibly a combination for various fields.
Specific
priorities, with super-giant fields at the top of the list.
The above will
depend entirely on the new constitution under discussion. The relevant articles
to the oil and gas industries seem to contain the seeds for conflicts and
possible fragmentation, and hence a possible delay to proposed
developments:
“Article 109
Oil and gas
is the property of all the Iraqi people in all the regions and provinces.
“Article 110
First– The
federal government will administer oil and gas extracted from current fields in
cooperation with the governments of the producing regions and provinces on
condition that the revenues will be distributed fairly in a manner compatible
with the demographical distribution all over the country. A quota should be
defined for a specified time for (affected) regions that were deprived in an
unfair way by the former regime later on, in a way to ensure balanced
development in different parts of the country. This should be regulated by law.
Second– The
federal government and the governments of the producing regions and provinces
together will draw up the necessary strategic policies to develop oil and gas
wealth to bring the greatest benefit for the Iraqi people, relying on the most
modern techniques of market principles and encouraging investment.
“Article 112
All that is not
written in the exclusive powers of the federal authorities is within the
authority of the regions (and the provinces that didn’t make it into a region).
In other powers shared between the federal government and the regions, the
priority will be given to the region’s law in case of dispute.”
The above oil
articles in the draft constitution have created an anomaly that can only bring
havoc to the industry and abort its development. Oil policies have to be
decided by the central government with consultations with the regions and
provinces.**
In conclusion, I
expect that in the short term, Iraqi oil production will continue around 1.8-2.0mn
b/d, with exports at an annual average of 1.5mn b/d for the next two years. I
doubt if Iraqi oil production will reach 3.5mn b/d before 2009. Nor will there
be a major hike to 6.0mn b/d, through the involvement of IOCs
and NOCs, before 2012-14.
This might be
considered as a pessimistic outlook. I certainly hope I will be proven wrong
and that better expectations can materialize for the sake of the Iraqi people.
=====
* Senior Iraqi officials claim
that only about 27% of money allocated has actually been spent on
reconstruction. Security has absorbed most of it. In an interview at Al Hurra TV channel, broadcast on 28 September
2005, the Minister of Electricity, Muhsin Shlash, said that only about $800mn out of about $6.3bn
allocated for the power sector had been spent on contracts for power projects,
but even that was poorly administrated due to corrupt deals.
**
Media reports quoted on 1 October 'Umar Fatah, Iraqi Kurdistan Prime
Minister, speaking in Singapore, as saying that the Kurdish authorities would
control oil in the north, including exports, concessions and oil development,
and not the central government.